PROYEKSI PERMINTAAN DAN PENAWARAN KOMODITAS UTAMA PERTANIAN, 2005-2020
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Abstract
Data proyeksi penawaran dan permintaan komoditas pertanian sangat penting sebagai basis bagi perencanaan pembangunan pertanian nasional umumnya dan Departmen Pertanian khususnya dalam rangka peningkatan produksi pertanian minimal untuk 15 tahun ke depan (2005-2020). Untuk analisis digunakan model parsial dan model simultan. Hasil proyeksi produksi dan konsumsi selama periode 2005-2020 menunjukkan bahwa secara umum komoditas pertanian utama mengamalmi surplus kecuali kedele, gula, cabai, dan jeruk, tetapi hasilnya masih di bawah target rencana strategis Departemen Pertanian. Hasil analisis lima komoditas pangan utama yaitu beras, jagung, kedele, gula dan daging sapi menunjukkan bahwa hanya komoditas jagung yang melebihi target yang ditetapkan pemerintah, sedangkan komoditas pangan lainnya masih di bawah target.
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